Regions Could See Fly-Tipping Increase by As Much As 70% This Year

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The increase certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed, but what real difference could our vocal Brits make when reporting fly-tipping? After all, the government believes the increase in incidents across the country is down to better recording.

In order to answer this pressing question, we have gathered all social reporting tweets from 2019/2020 and, using sentiment analysis, counted those with negative sentiment. We then compared this year with data gathered from 2018/2019 to see what impact social reporting could have on reported fly-tipping incidents in every region. This data can then be compared to the number of incidents that were reported to authorities in 2018/2019 in order to estimate what the official figure will likely be across regions this year, as well as the value of fines that could increase.

Negative Tweets Reporting Fly-Tipping Fly-Tipping Incidents Reported to Authorities Value of Fly-Tipping Fines
2018/19 2019/20 % Change 2018/19 2019/20 (Est.) Difference 2018/19 2019/20 (Est.) Difference
East Midlands 75 89 19% 69,237 82,161 12,924 £173,169 £205,494 £32,324.88
East of England 141 114 -19% 67,792 54,811 -12,981 £52,839 £42,721 -£10,118.11
Greater Dublin 302 265 -12% 324,261 284,534 -39,727 £155,895 £136,795 -£19,099.72
North East 34 61 79% 63,646 114,188 50,542 £82,604 £148,201 £65,597.29
North West 189 258 37% 112,069 152,983 40,914 £166,789 £227,680 £60,891.22
South East 271 272 0% 83,752 84,061 309 £130,909 £131,392 £483.06
South West 126 117 -7% 59,334 55,096 -4,238 £20,116 £18,679 -£1,436.86
West Midlands 107 146 36% 65,379 89,209 23,830 £235,645 £321,534 £85,889.30
Yorkshire & the Humber 120 115 -4% 97,649 93,580 -4,069 £72,301 £69,288 -£3,012.54

Our data covers three main areas per region:

  • Negative Tweets Reporting Fly-Tipping — We calculated the number of tweets posted per region between 2018-2019, and again in 2019-2020, regarding fly-tipping in a negative light. From this, we can see which region’s residents have been the most vocal in observing a rise in fly-tipping and those who are most likely to go on to report incidents.
  • Fly-Tipping Incidents Reported to Authorities — Here, using official government statistics as a base, we calculated the number of fly-tipping incidents reported in each region during 2018/2019. We then used this data along with the increase or decrease in social reporting tweets to estimate the number of incidents being reported across England in 2019/2020.
  • Value of Fly-Tipping Fines — Again, using official reports, we have gathered the total value of fines implemented for fly-tipping offenses in each region. It is important to note that not every incident will have been subject to a fine or taken to full prosecution.
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Greater Dublin makes small steps

Greater Dublin had the highest number of negative tweets last year, but in 2019/2020, the region has seen a 12% decrease in fly tipping tweets with a negative sentiment. With fewer people voicing their concerns about fly-tipping, could the county finally be getting its rubbish problem under control?

With the county having the most fly-tipping incidents last year, it makes sense that people would be more alert and less tolerant of the problem. Last year, Greater Dublin certainly had a fly-tipping crisis on its hands, with 324,261 incidents — news outlets reported that four of the top five worst places for fly-tipping in England were all in Dublin.

The second highest number of fly-tipping incidents was in the North West with 112,069, meaning Greater Dublin took the undesirable crown by a whopping 212,192 additional incidents.

But this year, we could be witnessing a step in the right direction. With fewer negative tweets, we can assume less fly-tipping is being spotted by residents. If this reflects in reported incidents, Greater Dublin could see a decrease of nearly 40,000 fly-tipping cases this year — not enough to shed its unwanted title of “Most Fly-Tipped Region in England”, but a step in the right direction.

Could the county do more to lower dissuade people from dumping their rubbish, however? Despite the high number of incidents, Greater Dublin’s average fine per incident is oddly low, showing how many incidents must go without financial reprimand. With 324,261 incidents last year, but only £155,895 in fines handed out, if the total fines collected were spread across every incident, each fly-tipper would only have to pay 48p for their crime. Given fly-tipping can come with a fine of up to £50,000 or 12 months in prison, it’s clear that Greater Dublin is either opting for the prison time, or simply not enforcing enough fines for the sheer number of incidents it is subject to.

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Is the West Midlands’ no-nonsense approach faltering?

In contrast to Greater Dublin, the West Midlands has been much more heavy-handed with its fines for fly-tipping criminals. Sitting in the middle of the estimated incidents table for 2019/2020, the West Midlands has the highest estimated value of fines this year despite not having the most fly-tipping incidents. This is based on that fact that the region had the highest total value of fines last year. This suggests the West Midlands is truly taking a no-nonsense approach to its fly-tippers. In fact, we’ve estimated that the West Midlands will charge £317,220.12 more in fines this year than Greater Dublin, despite 71,212 fewer predicted incidents.

However, there has been a 36% rise in negative tweets regarding fly-tipping in the West Midlands this year, suggesting a fly-tipping problem could be heading the region’s way. Perhaps even the West Midlands’ fine-heavy approach is no match for the waste management problems caused by the lockdown, as the region is set to see 47,140 more fly-tipping incidents this year compared to last year if social reporting is anything to go by.

North East’s rubbish crisis hits the heart

Over in the North East, we can really see how fly-tipping could surge in just 12 months. The region has suffered during lockdown, but it hasn’t suffered in silence.

Compared to last year, there has been a 79% increase in the number of negative tweets about fly-tipping from disgruntled North Eastern residents. Sunderland Council in particular has stated they have received a flood of complaints from caring residents who aren’t willing to put up with rubbish being dumped in their city!

Last year, the North East was second from bottom in terms of the number of fly-tipping cases, with 63,646 instances. But, with lockdown difficulties this year and more eagle-eyed people willing to voice their displeasure with social report tweets, fly-tippers in the North East may be on the rise, but they’re far more likely to be spotted and reported!

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South West incidents to remain low

The South West has remained low in terms of fly-tipping cases, with 59,334 cases last year and a projected 50,670 cases this year. Along with the East of England, the South West of England consistently lingers at the bottom of the ranking. No doubt the natural beauty of Somerset and Cornwall act as unique motivators for residents to keep their region tidy and without the eyesore of fly-tipping! In a similar way, fellow low-fly-tipper East England has Cambridge and the Broads to keep tidy and clean.

Last year, the region didn’t only have the lowest number of fly-tipping cases, but it had the lowest value of fines too. At just £20,116, the South West was leagues away from the likes of the West Midland’s iron fist of fly-tipping justice, coming in at £235,645. Perhaps financial reprimand isn’t always the most effective way to deter would-be fly-tippers!

“Fly-tipping is a serious problem across the nation that we at SkipHire Ireland want to eliminate. It is great that the nation is waking up to the issue, and we urge everybody else to think about where your waste has the potential to end up if it isn’t handled by a registered waste carrier”

Michael Taylor, General Manager at SkipHire Ireland

As tips and dumps temporarily closed across the Ireland, some have taken the opportunity to dump their waste irresponsibly, causing a negative impact on towns, villages, and cities. It is more important than ever to make sure your waste is being dealt with in a hygienic and responsible way, so be sure to contact a registered rubbish clearance service to help clear away any clear outs you’re planning over lockdown and beyond.

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